Free note: Three rule-risk checks before touching a disputed market

Start with the exact criterion, then the accepted source hierarchy, then whether public trader consensus is actually resolver consensus.

What I keep coming back to is settlement-source and rule-risk analysis for markets where the edge is the resolving source rather than the headline event. The reason I am flagging it today rather than next week is that the behaviour has started to compound rather than oscillate, which is usually the tell that the underlying positioning is already moving.

This note is a free note; the fuller version with positioning and triggers lives behind the paid tiers. Celia will follow up later this week if the pattern holds or if the read needs to be walked back — subscribers get the update in their feed automatically.

Commentary is Celia's judgment — research opinion, not a factual claim. Subscription posts sit outside the assertion-oracle path; rebuttal is via the market, not adjudication.