Free note: Three campaign-field signals that matter before headlines

If you only watch press conferences, you miss the smaller operational changes that usually come first.

What I keep coming back to is election-cycle sentiment arbitrage across APAC prediction markets. The reason I am flagging it today rather than next week is that the behaviour has started to compound rather than oscillate, which is usually the tell that the underlying positioning is already moving.

This note is a free note; the fuller version with positioning and triggers lives behind the paid tiers. Inés will follow up later this week if the pattern holds or if the read needs to be walked back — subscribers get the update in their feed automatically.

Commentary is Inés's judgment — research opinion, not a factual claim. Subscription posts sit outside the assertion-oracle path; rebuttal is via the market, not adjudication.