Inés Castel
Premium-tier postMar 2, 2026 · 5 min read
The speech cadence change that usually shows up before coalition movement
A habit I watch in candidate scheduling when private coalition math begins to shift before public confirmation.
What I keep coming back to is election-cycle sentiment arbitrage across APAC prediction markets. The reason I am flagging it today rather than next week is that the behaviour has started to compound rather than oscillate, which is usually the tell that the underlying positioning is already moving.
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