openApr 30, 2026
Fill replay and latency model for BTC 15-minute markets
@short_cycle
$18–$34
Due closed
Stream · appends continuously · each call returns the latest entry
BTC 15-minute market microstructure
Reconstructed Polymarket CLOB fills for BTC 15-minute windows, enriched with Binance and Coinbase prices, maker spread, latency, and toxic-flow flags.
UnchallengedStreamPublished Apr 27, 2026Last tick 15s ago
On-chain·Fill archive root
No automatic closeSealed as Archive after closePublished 2mo agoPer-call price
$0.90
/ callBid $0.80·Ask $0.90·spread 11.8%
Orderbook-driven · next call clears at ask
Related prediction market· 1 linked topic
Will BTC close higher in the next 15-minute Polymarket window?
Yes
51c
No
49c
24h Volume
$2410k
Resolves
2026-04-27
Venue
polymarket
Related requests
Buyer briefs this pack could answer.
openApr 25, 2026
April depeg watch for USDC and USDT
@defi_risk
$15–$25
Due closed
Stream
Unchallenged
Normalized Fed decision markets across Kalshi and Polymarket with fee-adjusted spread, executable depth, slippage estimate, and rule-difference card.
Related market
Will Kalshi-Polymarket Fed decision spreads stay above 3c before close?
38c yes62c no$352k 24h vol
P0110,000+ cross-venue outcomes scanned per hour
Per-call price
$0.80
/ callBest bid
$0.70
Best ask
$0.80
StreamApril 27-29, 2026 FOMC decision windowPublished 2mo ago
Stream
Unchallenged
Daily Bitcoin ETF flow table with source links, archive URLs, fund-level rows, historical context, and market-resolution mapping.
Related market
Will Bitcoin ETF net flows be positive today?
62c yes38c no$192k 24h vol
P01Fund-level net-flow table with source link per row
Per-call price
$0.45
/ callBest bid
$0.40
Best ask
$0.45
StreamApril 27, 2026 daily flow windowPublished 2mo ago
Stream
Unchallenged
Hourly validator entry/exit queue depths, principal flows, and concentration metrics.
Related market
ETH staking ratio above 30% by Q3?
43c yes57c no$156k 24h vol
P01Entry queue median +14% week-over-week
Per-call price
$0.70
/ callBest bid
$0.65
Best ask
$0.70
StreamMarch 31–April 6, 2026Published 2mo ago
Same topic packs
Adjacent inventory on the same question cluster.
No exact topic overlap surfaced yet, so this section widened to nearby sector inventory.
Stream
Unchallenged
Daily Bitcoin ETF flow table with source links, archive URLs, fund-level rows, historical context, and market-resolution mapping.
Related market
Will Bitcoin ETF net flows be positive today?
62c yes38c no$192k 24h vol
P01Fund-level net-flow table with source link per row
Per-call price
$0.45
/ callBest bid
$0.40
Best ask
$0.45
StreamApril 27, 2026 daily flow windowPublished 2mo ago
Stream
Unchallenged
Large-wallet accumulation, rule-clarification timeline, and official-source hierarchy for the Venezuela leader end-2026 market.
Related market
Who will be recognized as Venezuela's leader at end of 2026?
31c yes69c no$268k 24h vol
P01Top 20 wallets grouped by side and entry time
Per-call price
$0.70
/ callBest bid
$0.60
Best ask
$0.70
StreamApril 18-27, 2026 live rule-clarification windowPublished 2mo ago
Stream
Unchallenged
Hourly validator entry/exit queue depths, principal flows, and concentration metrics.
Related market
ETH staking ratio above 30% by Q3?
43c yes57c no$156k 24h vol
P01Entry queue median +14% week-over-week
Per-call price
$0.70
/ callBest bid
$0.65
Best ask
$0.70
StreamMarch 31–April 6, 2026Published 2mo ago
Free preview
- Fills reconstructed from CLOB event stream
- Binance and Coinbase midpoints aligned to millisecond buckets
- Maker spread and adverse selection scored per window
- Toxic-flow flag active on 2 of last 12 windows
Manifest summary
CLOB fills8,420
External price ticks14,400
Microstructure windows96
Purchase to access full manifest with individual records
Stream Unchallenged
Scope & Context
Region
Global crypto markets
Time Window
Rolling 15-minute windows
Sector
Crypto Short-Cycle Microstructure
Related Event
BTC 15-minute Polymarket up/down windows
Access & Delivery
Preview
CLOB fill reconstruction, external price alignment, maker spread, latency, and toxicity score by 15-minute window.
Full Delivery
Full fill-level dataset, external price tick alignment, maker spread model, latency diagnostics, and toxic-flow labels.
Format
Streaming JSON + Parquet archive
Available
9 packs
Risk notes
Notes
- CLOB reconstruction can lag during exchange websocket reconnects
- External price alignment depends on exchange timestamp quality
Core Claim
Observation
Maker spread widens and adverse-selection score spikes before several short-cycle price reversals.
4 field groups — purchase to view claims, sources, and evidence
Core Claim · Source · Signal Grouping · Structured Analysis
Settlement preview
How a call on this pack settles.
At $0.90 / call
- 01Escrow
When you place a call, the protocol pre-charges your wallet by the per-call price, sized against the pack's predicted quality. Funds sit in escrow — they haven't settled to the seller yet.
- 02Delivery
The seller fulfills the call. For a Snapshot, you receive the content immediately; for a Stream, the call returns the latest entry. The seller's per-trade Deposit is locked in parallel.
- 03Verification window
A short window opens for you to challenge if actual quality falls short of predicted. The pack's content hash was anchored at publication, so what the seller delivered is what you can verify against.
- 04Payout, refund, or clawback
If quality meets or exceeds predicted, escrow releases to the seller and their Deposit unlocks. If it falls short, escrow partially refunds to you by the gap. Confirmed fraud triggers full clawback of the seller's Deposit plus a hard reset of their Reputation.
Verification-settled by default — the platform doesn't review packs before listing; trust is posterior. Dispute routing and bond tiers live under /network.
Actions
Pay per call, access on demand.
Clears at current best ask · each call returns the latest Stream tick
Referenced in commentariesNEW
Creators citing this pack.
Darius Hale· 1 post
Latest: “Stablecoin rotation is back in the open. The size still looks underpriced.”
Apr 6, 2026 · Premium
