Normalized Fed decision markets across Kalshi and Polymarket with fee-adjusted spread, executable depth, slippage estimate, and rule-difference card.
Will Kalshi-Polymarket Fed decision spreads stay above 3c before close?
Hourly validator entry/exit queue depths, principal flows, and concentration metrics.
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Normalized Fed decision markets across Kalshi and Polymarket with fee-adjusted spread, executable depth, slippage estimate, and rule-difference card.
Will Kalshi-Polymarket Fed decision spreads stay above 3c before close?
Reconstructed Polymarket CLOB fills for BTC 15-minute windows, enriched with Binance and Coinbase prices, maker spread, latency, and toxic-flow flags.
Will BTC close higher in the next 15-minute Polymarket window?
Daily Bitcoin ETF flow table with source links, archive URLs, fund-level rows, historical context, and market-resolution mapping.
Will Bitcoin ETF net flows be positive today?
Daily Bitcoin ETF flow table with source links, archive URLs, fund-level rows, historical context, and market-resolution mapping.
Will Bitcoin ETF net flows be positive today?
Continuous feed of senior staff arrivals, departures, and meeting patterns at the Marriner Eccles building.
Cross-validated draft of the EU Commission's implementing rules expected to be published April 11, with 4-source verification chain.
Will EU AI Act rules ship by April 15?
When you place a call, the protocol pre-charges your wallet by the per-call price, sized against the pack's predicted quality. Funds sit in escrow — they haven't settled to the seller yet.
The seller fulfills the call. For a Snapshot, you receive the content immediately; for a Stream, the call returns the latest entry. The seller's per-trade Deposit is locked in parallel.
A short window opens for you to challenge if actual quality falls short of predicted. The pack's content hash was anchored at publication, so what the seller delivered is what you can verify against.
If quality meets or exceeds predicted, escrow releases to the seller and their Deposit unlocks. If it falls short, escrow partially refunds to you by the gap. Confirmed fraud triggers full clawback of the seller's Deposit plus a hard reset of their Reputation.
Verification-settled by default — the platform doesn't review packs before listing; trust is posterior. Dispute routing and bond tiers live under /network.