#CROSS-VENUE ARB#MACRO RELEASES#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALS
Stream · appends continuously · each call returns the latest entry

Fed decision spreads across Kalshi and Polymarket

by TRANS_ORBIT_INTEL

Normalized Fed decision markets across Kalshi and Polymarket with fee-adjusted spread, executable depth, slippage estimate, and rule-difference card.

UnchallengedStreamPublished Apr 27, 2026Last tick 30s ago
On-chain·Snapshot Merkle root
Closes when latest bound topic settlesSnapshot pricing after close · $8.00 / callPublished 2mo ago
Per-call price
$0.80
/ call
Bid $0.70·Ask $0.80·spread 13.3%
Orderbook-driven · next call clears at ask
Related prediction markets· 2 linked topics

Will Kalshi-Polymarket Fed decision spreads stay above 3c before close?

Yes
38c
No
62c
24h Volume
$3520k
Resolves
2026-04-29
Venue
polymarket
View topicView on polymarket
Also linked
Will the next CPI release move June Fed-cut odds by 10 points?
44c yes$2220k 24h2026-05-13polymarket
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#MACRO RELEASES#CROSS-VENUE ARB#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALSUnited States

BLS release parser, CPI nowcast delta, Fed-cut odds reaction, and cross-venue repricing table for the next inflation print.

Related market

Will the next CPI release move June Fed-cut odds by 10 points?

44c yes56c no$222k 24h vol
P01Official BLS release endpoint and timestamp plan
Per-call price
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/ call
Best bid
$0.90
Best ask
$1
StreamNext CPI release cyclePublished 2mo ago
Open
Free preview
  • 10,000+ cross-venue outcomes scanned per hour
  • Fed decision pair currently shows 3.2c fee-adjusted spread
  • Depth-validated max executable size included
  • Rule-difference card prevents false arb
Manifest summary
Matched markets184
Orderbook snapshots2,180
Rule-difference cards37
Purchase to access full manifest with individual records
Stream Unchallenged
Scope & Context
Region
US
Time Window
April 27-29, 2026 FOMC decision window
Sector
Cross-Venue Arbitrage
Related Event
Fed decision pricing across prediction-market venues
Access & Delivery
Preview
Matched market IDs, normalized outcome, raw spread, fee-adjusted edge, depth, and rule-difference notes.
Full Delivery
Full cross-venue matching table, orderbook snapshots, depth and slippage model, fee assumptions, and false-arb rule notes.
Format
Streaming JSON + CSV snapshot
Available
12 packs
Risk notes
Notes
  • False positives occur when venues encode slightly different settlement rules
  • Displayed spread is fee- and depth-adjusted, not raw midpoint difference
Core Claim
Observation
The visible arb is concentrated in rule-equivalent pairs after fees and available depth are applied.
4 field groups — purchase to view claims, sources, and evidence
Core Claim · Source · Signal Grouping · Structured Analysis
Settlement preview

How a call on this pack settles.

At $0.80 / call
  1. 01
    Escrow

    When you place a call, the protocol pre-charges your wallet by the per-call price, sized against the pack's predicted quality. Funds sit in escrow — they haven't settled to the seller yet.

  2. 02
    Delivery

    The seller fulfills the call. For a Snapshot, you receive the content immediately; for a Stream, the call returns the latest entry. The seller's per-trade Deposit is locked in parallel.

  3. 03
    Verification window

    A short window opens for you to challenge if actual quality falls short of predicted. The pack's content hash was anchored at publication, so what the seller delivered is what you can verify against.

  4. 04
    Payout, refund, or clawback

    If quality meets or exceeds predicted, escrow releases to the seller and their Deposit unlocks. If it falls short, escrow partially refunds to you by the gap. Confirmed fraud triggers full clawback of the seller's Deposit plus a hard reset of their Reputation.

Verification-settled by default — the platform doesn't review packs before listing; trust is posterior. Dispute routing and bond tiers live under /network.

Actions

Pay per call, access on demand.

Clears at current best ask · each call returns the latest Stream tick
Referenced in commentariesNEW

Creators citing this pack.

Marcus Vale· 1 post
Latest: “Fed spreads are only real after the rule card clears”
Apr 27, 2026 · Premium
View commentary