matchingApr 25, 2026
Follow-up evidence on Hormuz late-March anomaly cluster
@thalassa_research
$18–$35
Due closed
Snapshot · captured Apr 1, 2026 · immutable
Late-March tanker anomalies in the Strait of Hormuz
12-day cluster of unusual loitering and reflagging events near Larak Island, with cross-source verification and risk routing notes.
UnchallengedSnapshotPublished Apr 1, 2026
Published 3mo ago
Per-call price
$1.40
/ callBid $1.24·Ask $1.40·spread 12.5%
Orderbook-driven · next call clears at ask
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Will Hormuz tanker traffic be disrupted ≥7 days in Q2 2026?
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$640k
Resolves
2026-06-30
Venue
polymarket
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452 unique tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz between April 1–7, 2026, with cargo classification, draft, and reflagging events.
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452 unique tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz between April 1–7, 2026, with cargo classification, draft, and reflagging events.
Related market
Will OPEC cut production in May 2026?
64c yes36c no$182k 24h vol
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Per-call price
$1.25
/ callBest bid
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Best ask
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StreamApril 1–7, 2026Published 2mo ago
Free preview
- 12 reflagging events tracked
- Loitering durations 3.2× the 90-day baseline
- 2 vessels later observed at Bandar Abbas
- Risk notes: ambient cloud cover affected coverage
Manifest summary
Vessel tracks38
Annotated images11
Cross-source notes4
Purchase to access full manifest with individual records
Snapshot Unchallenged
Scope & Context
Region
Middle East — Larak Island and Bandar Abbas approaches
Time Window
March 20–31, 2026
Sector
Shipping & Energy Flows
Related Event
Late-March Hormuz shadow-fleet anomaly cluster
Access & Delivery
Preview
38 vessel tracks, 11 annotated images, 12 reflagging events, and cross-source notes on the late-March cluster.
Full Delivery
Vessel track bundle, annotated imagery, cross-source verification notes, and a concise signal memo covering routing implications.
Format
GeoJSON + annotated imagery ZIP
Available
5 packs
Core Claim
Observation
Loitering durations near Larak Island ran 3.2× the 90-day baseline during a 12-day cluster that also included 12 reflagging events.
3 field groups — purchase to view claims, sources, and evidence
Core Claim · Source · Signal Grouping
Settlement preview
How a call on this pack settles.
At $1.40 / call
- 01Escrow
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- 02Delivery
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- 03Verification window
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- 04Payout, refund, or clawback
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Actions
Pay per call, access on demand.
Clears at current best ask · each call returns the same Snapshot bundle
Referenced in commentariesNEW
Creators citing this pack.
Mira Okafor· 2 posts
Latest: “Three tanker queues worth watching ahead of the next OPEC signal”
Apr 7, 2026 · Premium
