matchingApr 25, 2026
Follow-up evidence on Hormuz late-March anomaly cluster
@thalassa_research
$18–$35
Due closed
Stream · appends continuously · each call returns the latest entry
Strait of Hormuz tanker telemetry for Week 14
452 unique tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz between April 1–7, 2026, with cargo classification, draft, and reflagging events.
UnchallengedStreamPublished Apr 6, 2026Last tick 0s ago
On-chain·On-chain Merkle anchorAttested·Lloyd's List cross-signed
Closes when latest bound topic settlesSealed as Archive after closePublished 2mo agoPer-call price
$1.25
/ callBid $1.15·Ask $1.25·spread 8.3%
Orderbook-driven · next call clears at ask
Related prediction markets· 2 linked topics
Will Hormuz tanker traffic be disrupted ≥7 days in Q2 2026?
Yes
22c
No
78c
24h Volume
$640k
Resolves
2026-06-30
Venue
polymarket
Also linked
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On-field wind measurements 2 hours pre-kickoff across 4 La Liga venues.
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Weekly utilization rates for 8 Saudi Aramco refineries, derived from thermal satellite imagery cross-referenced with port outflow data.
P01Ras Tanura at 94% utilization (+4pp WoW)
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Stream2026-W16Published 2mo ago
Snapshot
Unchallenged
12-day cluster of unusual loitering and reflagging events near Larak Island, with cross-source verification and risk routing notes.
Related market
Tanker incident in Strait of Hormuz April?
38c yes62c no$62k 24h vol
P0112 reflagging events tracked
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$1.40
SnapshotMarch 20–31, 2026Published 3mo ago
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Adjacent inventory on the same question cluster.
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Ministerial signals and quota estimates ahead of the May 2026 OPEC+ meeting, synthesized from on-the-record briefings and price guidance from member states.
P01Saudi Arabia ministerial guidance favors a 500kbd cut
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Stream2026-Q2Published 2mo ago
Stream
Unchallenged
Weekly utilization rates for 8 Saudi Aramco refineries, derived from thermal satellite imagery cross-referenced with port outflow data.
P01Ras Tanura at 94% utilization (+4pp WoW)
Per-call price
$1.10
/ callBest bid
$1
Best ask
$1.10
Stream2026-W16Published 2mo ago
Snapshot
Unchallenged
12-day cluster of unusual loitering and reflagging events near Larak Island, with cross-source verification and risk routing notes.
Related market
Tanker incident in Strait of Hormuz April?
38c yes62c no$62k 24h vol
P0112 reflagging events tracked
Per-call price
$1.40
/ callBest bid
$1.24
Best ask
$1.40
SnapshotMarch 20–31, 2026Published 3mo ago
Free preview
- 452 distinct VLCC and Suezmax movements
- 12 reflagging events (8 outbound, 4 inbound)
- Median dwell time at OPL up 18% week-over-week
- Two anomaly clusters near Bandar Abbas anchorage
Manifest summary
Tanker records452
Satellite images12
Anomaly charts3
Written summary1
Purchase to access full manifest with individual records
Stream Unchallenged
Scope & Context
Region
Middle East — Strait of Hormuz
Time Window
April 1–7, 2026
Sector
Shipping & Maritime Logistics
Related Event
Late-March Hormuz rerouting and reflagging cluster
Access & Delivery
Preview
452 tanker movements, 12 reflagging events, dwell-time trend charts, and 2 anomaly cluster maps.
Full Delivery
Complete vessel-level telemetry database, satellite imagery, annotated anomaly charts, and a written analytical brief.
Format
Structured JSON + satellite imagery ZIP
Available
3 packs
Risk notes
Notes
- Telemetry source mix: AIS + 2 satellite providers (cross-validated)
- 1 sub-region (Qeshm Island) has reduced coverage during weekend window
Core Claim
Observation
Tanker dwell time at outer port limits increased 18% week-over-week with two anomaly clusters near Bandar Abbas.
4 field groups — purchase to view claims, sources, and evidence
Core Claim · Source · Signal Grouping · Structured Analysis
Settlement preview
How a call on this pack settles.
At $1.25 / call
- 01Escrow
When you place a call, the protocol pre-charges your wallet by the per-call price, sized against the pack's predicted quality. Funds sit in escrow — they haven't settled to the seller yet.
- 02Delivery
The seller fulfills the call. For a Snapshot, you receive the content immediately; for a Stream, the call returns the latest entry. The seller's per-trade Deposit is locked in parallel.
- 03Verification window
A short window opens for you to challenge if actual quality falls short of predicted. The pack's content hash was anchored at publication, so what the seller delivered is what you can verify against.
- 04Payout, refund, or clawback
If quality meets or exceeds predicted, escrow releases to the seller and their Deposit unlocks. If it falls short, escrow partially refunds to you by the gap. Confirmed fraud triggers full clawback of the seller's Deposit plus a hard reset of their Reputation.
Verification-settled by default — the platform doesn't review packs before listing; trust is posterior. Dispute routing and bond tiers live under /network.
Actions
Pay per call, access on demand.
Clears at current best ask · each call returns the latest Stream tick
Referenced in commentariesNEW
Creators citing this pack.
Mira Okafor· 1 post
Latest: “Three tanker queues worth watching ahead of the next OPEC signal”
Apr 7, 2026 · Premium
