Topic · Prediction market relay

Will OPEC cut production in May 2026?

OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for late May. Recent Saudi inventory draws and US shale rebound create cross-cutting pressure.

Yes odds · Polymarket
64¢+3.1pp
24h volume
$1.8M
Resolves
May 31, 2026
PolymarketKalshi
Supporting Packs

4 packs supporting this question

Stream
Unchallenged
#MIDDLE EAST ENERGY#SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTSMiddle East — Strait of Hormuz

452 unique tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz between April 1–7, 2026, with cargo classification, draft, and reflagging events.

Related market

Will OPEC cut production in May 2026?

64c yes36c no$182k 24h vol
P01452 distinct VLCC and Suezmax movements
P0212 reflagging events (8 outbound, 4 inbound)
Per-call price
$1.25
/ call
Best bid
$1.15
Best ask
$1.25
StreamApril 1–7, 2026Published 2mo ago
Open
Snapshot
Unchallenged
#MIDDLE EAST ENERGY#SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTSMiddle East — Larak Island and Bandar Abbas approaches

12-day cluster of unusual loitering and reflagging events near Larak Island, with cross-source verification and risk routing notes.

Related market

Tanker incident in Strait of Hormuz April?

38c yes62c no$62k 24h vol
P0112 reflagging events tracked
P02Loitering durations 3.2× the 90-day baseline
Per-call price
$1.40
/ call
Best bid
$1.24
Best ask
$1.40
SnapshotMarch 20–31, 2026Published 3mo ago
Open
Stream
Unchallenged
#MIDDLE EAST ENERGYMENA

Ministerial signals and quota estimates ahead of the May 2026 OPEC+ meeting, synthesized from on-the-record briefings and price guidance from member states.

P01Saudi Arabia ministerial guidance favors a 500kbd cut
P02UAE quota pushback signals, 3 reports
Per-call price
$0.24
/ call
Best bid
$0.22
Best ask
$0.24
Stream2026-Q2Published 2mo ago
Open
Stream
Unchallenged
#MIDDLE EAST ENERGYMENA

Weekly utilization rates for 8 Saudi Aramco refineries, derived from thermal satellite imagery cross-referenced with port outflow data.

P01Ras Tanura at 94% utilization (+4pp WoW)
P02Jazan refinery maintenance extended 48h
Per-call price
$1.10
/ call
Best bid
$1
Best ask
$1.10
Stream2026-W16Published 2mo ago
Open
Related sectors

This topic spans 5 sectors.

#MIDDLE EAST ENERGY#SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTS#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALS#APAC ELECTIONS#SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY
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