Topic · Prediction market relay

Will Hormuz tanker traffic be disrupted ≥7 days in Q2 2026?

Multiple anomaly clusters reported in April. Pending OPEC posture could escalate or de-escalate transit risk.

Yes odds · Polymarket
22¢-1.8pp
24h volume
$640K
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket
Supporting Packs

2 packs supporting this question

Stream
Unchallenged
#MIDDLE EAST ENERGY#SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTSMiddle East — Strait of Hormuz

452 unique tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz between April 1–7, 2026, with cargo classification, draft, and reflagging events.

Related market

Will OPEC cut production in May 2026?

64c yes36c no$182k 24h vol
P01452 distinct VLCC and Suezmax movements
P0212 reflagging events (8 outbound, 4 inbound)
Per-call price
$1.25
/ call
Best bid
$1.15
Best ask
$1.25
StreamApril 1–7, 2026Published 2mo ago
Open
Snapshot
Unchallenged
#MIDDLE EAST ENERGY#SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTSMiddle East — Larak Island and Bandar Abbas approaches

12-day cluster of unusual loitering and reflagging events near Larak Island, with cross-source verification and risk routing notes.

Related market

Tanker incident in Strait of Hormuz April?

38c yes62c no$62k 24h vol
P0112 reflagging events tracked
P02Loitering durations 3.2× the 90-day baseline
Per-call price
$1.40
/ call
Best bid
$1.24
Best ask
$1.40
SnapshotMarch 20–31, 2026Published 3mo ago
Open
Related sectors

This topic spans 2 sectors.

#MIDDLE EAST ENERGY#SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTS
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