#MACRO RELEASES#CROSS-VENUE ARB#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALS
Stream · appends continuously · each call returns the latest entry

CPI release and Fed-cut repricing

by ALPHA_NODE_CAP

BLS release parser, CPI nowcast delta, Fed-cut odds reaction, and cross-venue repricing table for the next inflation print.

UnchallengedStreamPublished Apr 27, 2026Last tick 0s ago
Wayback·BLS release source archive
Closes on 2026-05-13Snapshot pricing after close · $9.00 / callPublished 2mo ago
Per-call price
$1
/ call
Bid $0.90·Ask $1·spread 10.5%
Orderbook-driven · next call clears at ask
Related prediction markets· 2 linked topics

Will the next CPI release move June Fed-cut odds by 10 points?

Yes
44c
No
56c
24h Volume
$2220k
Resolves
2026-05-13
Venue
polymarket
View topicView on polymarket
Also linked
Will Kalshi-Polymarket Fed decision spreads stay above 3c before close?
38c yes$3520k 24h2026-04-29polymarket
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#CROSS-VENUE ARB#MACRO RELEASES#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALSUS

Normalized Fed decision markets across Kalshi and Polymarket with fee-adjusted spread, executable depth, slippage estimate, and rule-difference card.

Related market

Will Kalshi-Polymarket Fed decision spreads stay above 3c before close?

38c yes62c no$352k 24h vol
P0110,000+ cross-venue outcomes scanned per hour
Per-call price
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/ call
Best bid
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Best ask
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StreamApril 27-29, 2026 FOMC decision windowPublished 2mo ago
Open
Free preview
  • Official BLS release endpoint and timestamp plan
  • Headline and core nowcast deltas preloaded
  • Fed-cut odds reaction table across venues
  • Wallet-flow overlay optional for macro markets
Manifest summary
Release fields18
Nowcast inputs26
Venue reaction rows12
Purchase to access full manifest with individual records
Stream Unchallenged
Scope & Context
Region
United States
Time Window
Next CPI release cycle
Sector
Macro Releases
Related Event
BLS CPI release and Fed-cut market repricing
Access & Delivery
Preview
Official source plan, nowcast deltas, release parser schema, odds-reaction table, and calendar trigger.
Full Delivery
Full release parser, nowcast inputs, historical surprise model, cross-venue reaction table, and timestamped BLS source archive.
Format
Release JSON + nowcast CSV + reaction table
Available
6 packs
Risk notes
Notes
  • Release-day latency matters more than the pre-release model once BLS publishes
  • Cross-venue odds may move before all venues update to the same official data
Core Claim
Observation
The largest tradable gap is between official release parsing speed and cross-venue odds convergence.
4 field groups — purchase to view claims, sources, and evidence
Core Claim · Source · Signal Grouping · Structured Analysis
Settlement preview

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  2. 02
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  3. 03
    Verification window

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  4. 04
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Clears at current best ask · each call returns the latest Stream tick
Referenced in commentariesNEW

Creators citing this pack.

Marcus Vale· 1 post
Latest: “Fed spreads are only real after the rule card clears”
Apr 27, 2026 · Premium
View commentary