openApr 26, 2026
Was there an ASML pull-forward in March 2026?
@chip_macro
$22–$38
Due closed
Snapshot · captured Apr 2, 2026 · immutable
TSMC Hsinchu equipment arrivals in March 2026
Time-stamped vehicle and crate arrivals at TSMC Fab 18 over 31 days, with vendor inference where signage is visible.
UnchallengedSnapshotPublished Apr 2, 2026
EXIF·Camera EXIF hashWayback·Wayback snapshot
Published 2mo agoPer-call price
$9
/ callBid $8·Ask $9·spread 11.8%
Orderbook-driven · next call clears at ask
Related prediction market· 1 linked topic
Will US tighten Taiwan semiconductor export controls in Q3 2026?
Yes
47c
No
53c
24h Volume
$890k
Resolves
2026-09-30
Venue
polymarket
Related requests
Buyer briefs this pack could answer.
Stream
Unchallenged
Normalized Fed decision markets across Kalshi and Polymarket with fee-adjusted spread, executable depth, slippage estimate, and rule-difference card.
Related market
Will Kalshi-Polymarket Fed decision spreads stay above 3c before close?
38c yes62c no$352k 24h vol
P0110,000+ cross-venue outcomes scanned per hour
Per-call price
$0.80
/ callBest bid
$0.70
Best ask
$0.80
StreamApril 27-29, 2026 FOMC decision windowPublished 2mo ago
Stream
Unchallenged
Reconstructed Polymarket CLOB fills for BTC 15-minute windows, enriched with Binance and Coinbase prices, maker spread, latency, and toxic-flow flags.
Related market
Will BTC close higher in the next 15-minute Polymarket window?
51c yes49c no$241k 24h vol
P01Fills reconstructed from CLOB event stream
Per-call price
$0.90
/ callBest bid
$0.80
Best ask
$0.90
StreamRolling 15-minute windowsPublished 2mo ago
Stream
Unchallenged
Daily Bitcoin ETF flow table with source links, archive URLs, fund-level rows, historical context, and market-resolution mapping.
Related market
Will Bitcoin ETF net flows be positive today?
62c yes38c no$192k 24h vol
P01Fund-level net-flow table with source link per row
Per-call price
$0.45
/ callBest bid
$0.40
Best ask
$0.45
StreamApril 27, 2026 daily flow windowPublished 2mo ago
Same topic packs
Adjacent inventory on the same question cluster.
SnapshotSealed archive
Unchallenged
#SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALSGlobal — Netherlands export lanes to Asia, US, and Europe
Quarterly model of ASML shipment volumes by destination region, cross-checked against port and rail data.
Related market
ASML Q2 guidance beat?
51c yes49c no$318k 24h vol
P01Q1 shipment volumes by region
Per-call price
$16
/ callBest bid
$14.50
Best ask
$16
SnapshotQ1 2026Published 2mo ago
Free preview
- 1,284 logged truck and trailer arrivals
- 94 crates with visible ASML, Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron markings
- March 19–23 spike correlates with reported export waiver
- Vendor inference confidence chart attached
Manifest summary
Arrival logs1,284
Annotated frames94
Vendor breakdown1
Anomaly note2
Purchase to access full manifest with individual records
Snapshot Unchallenged
Scope & Context
Region
Taiwan — Hsinchu
Time Window
March 1–31, 2026
Sector
Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment
Related Event
Reported March export waiver window
Access & Delivery
Preview
1,284 arrival logs, 94 annotated vendor sightings, daily arrival cadence, and a confidence-scored vendor inference chart.
Full Delivery
Time-stamped gate logs, annotated frame captures, vendor inference tables, and a short analytical note on the March spike.
Format
Structured JSON + annotated image set
Available
4 packs
Core Claim
Observation
Equipment arrivals at TSMC Fab 18 spiked during March 19–23, with visible markings suggesting a pull-forward in high-value tool deliveries.
4 field groups — purchase to view claims, sources, and evidence
Core Claim · Source · Signal Grouping · Structured Analysis
Settlement preview
How a call on this pack settles.
At $9 / call
- 01Escrow
When you place a call, the protocol pre-charges your wallet by the per-call price, sized against the pack's predicted quality. Funds sit in escrow — they haven't settled to the seller yet.
- 02Delivery
The seller fulfills the call. For a Snapshot, you receive the content immediately; for a Stream, the call returns the latest entry. The seller's per-trade Deposit is locked in parallel.
- 03Verification window
A short window opens for you to challenge if actual quality falls short of predicted. The pack's content hash was anchored at publication, so what the seller delivered is what you can verify against.
- 04Payout, refund, or clawback
If quality meets or exceeds predicted, escrow releases to the seller and their Deposit unlocks. If it falls short, escrow partially refunds to you by the gap. Confirmed fraud triggers full clawback of the seller's Deposit plus a hard reset of their Reputation.
Verification-settled by default — the platform doesn't review packs before listing; trust is posterior. Dispute routing and bond tiers live under /network.
Actions
Pay per call, access on demand.
Clears at current best ask · each call returns the same Snapshot bundle
Referenced in commentariesNEW
Creators citing this pack.
Takeshi Arai· 2 posts
Latest: “Equipment arrivals point to a faster memory turn than consensus expects”
Apr 5, 2026 · Premium
