Topic · Prediction market relay

Will US tighten Taiwan semiconductor export controls in Q3 2026?

ASML shipment patterns and FOMC-adjacent policy signaling suggest an enforcement tightening before Q3 end.

Yes odds · Polymarket
47¢+2.2pp
24h volume
$890K
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket
Supporting Packs

2 packs supporting this question

Snapshot
Unchallenged
#SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY#SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTSTaiwan — Hsinchu

Time-stamped vehicle and crate arrivals at TSMC Fab 18 over 31 days, with vendor inference where signage is visible.

Related market

Will US export controls expand by Q3 2026?

58c yes42c no$241k 24h vol
P011,284 logged truck and trailer arrivals
P0294 crates with visible ASML, Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron markings
Per-call price
$9
/ call
Best bid
$8
Best ask
$9
SnapshotMarch 1–31, 2026Published 2mo ago
Open
SnapshotSealed archive
Unchallenged
#SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALSGlobal — Netherlands export lanes to Asia, US, and Europe

Quarterly model of ASML shipment volumes by destination region, cross-checked against port and rail data.

Related market

ASML Q2 guidance beat?

51c yes49c no$318k 24h vol
P01Q1 shipment volumes by region
P02TSMC, Samsung and Intel destination splits
Per-call price
$16
/ call
Best bid
$14.50
Best ask
$16
SnapshotQ1 2026Published 2mo ago
Open
Related sectors

This topic spans 2 sectors.

#SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALS
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