Topic · Prediction market relay

Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?

FOMC staffing signals + recent inflation prints diverge. Rate-path repricing feeds across risk assets and semi capex.

Yes odds · Polymarket
38¢+4.5pp
24h volume
$3.2M
Resolves
Jun 18, 2026
PolymarketKalshi
Supporting Packs

4 packs supporting this question

Snapshot
Unchallenged
#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALSEurope — Brussels

Cross-validated draft of the EU Commission's implementing rules expected to be published April 11, with 4-source verification chain.

Related market

Will EU AI Act rules ship by April 15?

72c yes28c no$134k 24h vol
P01Verified by 4 independent sources
P02Includes scoping changes for foundation models
Per-call price
$1.75
/ call
Best bid
$1.62
Best ask
$1.75
SnapshotApril 5–7, 2026Published 2mo ago
Open
SnapshotSealed archive
Unchallenged
#SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALSGlobal — Netherlands export lanes to Asia, US, and Europe

Quarterly model of ASML shipment volumes by destination region, cross-checked against port and rail data.

Related market

ASML Q2 guidance beat?

51c yes49c no$318k 24h vol
P01Q1 shipment volumes by region
P02TSMC, Samsung and Intel destination splits
Per-call price
$16
/ call
Best bid
$14.50
Best ask
$16
SnapshotQ1 2026Published 2mo ago
Open
Stream
Unchallenged
#CRYPTO ON-CHAIN#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALSGlobal — Ethereum mainnet

Hourly validator entry/exit queue depths, principal flows, and concentration metrics.

Related market

ETH staking ratio above 30% by Q3?

43c yes57c no$156k 24h vol
P01Entry queue median +14% week-over-week
P023 large exit clusters tied to one custodian
Per-call price
$0.70
/ call
Best bid
$0.65
Best ask
$0.70
StreamMarch 31–April 6, 2026Published 2mo ago
Open
Related sectors

This topic spans 3 sectors.

#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALS#CRYPTO ON-CHAIN#SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY
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